Sports, security and economy: Challenges of the Horn in the new millennium

www.eastafricaforum.net http://www.iaaf.org/OLY08/news/kind=108/newsid=47300.html IAAF, US Saturday, 23 August 2008 Men's 5000m - FINAL

Kenenisa Bekele adds the 5000m gold to the 10,000m title he won earlier in the week (Getty Images)
Alongside Hannes Kolehmainen, Emil Zatopek, Vladimir Kuts, Lasse Viren and Miruts Yifter we can now add the name Kenenisa Bekele as the only men to win the 5000m and 10,000m double at the Olympic Games.

The Ethiopian maestro produced a masterful tactical performance as he dictated the pace from the front for much of the race before unleashing that killer kick finish to destroy the opposition and set an Olympic record of 12:57:82.

So often in the recent past global 5000m finals have been characterised by turgidly slow races followed by a last lap burn up but Bekele, who was beaten by just 0.20 to the gold medal in Athens four years ago, was never going to allow that to happen a second time.

Supported ably by his Ethiopian lieutenants - including his brother Tariku and Abreham Cherkos - the trio laid the foundations for Bekele's memorable victory. Kenya's Eliud Kipchoge, the eternal bridesmaid, went one better than four years ago in Athens to take silver in 13:02.80 with countryman Edwin Soi (13:06.22) taking the bronze.

Surprisingly for Bekele, who is the World record holder, this was his first global 5000m title and he also matched the feats of his compatriot Tirunesh Dibaba who had completed the 5000m and 10,000m double the previous day.

Eritrea's Kidane Tadesse took the field through the first lap in a modest 68 seconds but Bekele mindful of being outsprinted by Hicham El Guerrouj at the Athens Games, was not prepared to suffer the same fate again. He hit the front and slowly cranked up the pace ahead of Ireland's Alistair Cragg.

Bekele's younger sibling, Tariku, took his turn at the front and he hit the 1km mark in 2:45.49 followed by Kenenisa with the third Ethiopian, Cherkos, the World Junior champion, controlling affairs at the front.

Just after the 2km point - passed in 5:22.29 - Cherkos took his turn at the front, although the Kenyan trio took closer order behind the Ethiopians.

At 3km Bekele, that's Kenenisa and not Tariku, led them through in 8:00.85 but five laps out he decided to make what would prove the decisive move of the race putting in a 60-second lap to blow the field wide open.

Four laps out only five athletes remained in touch with the leader - Kipchoge, Soi, World champion Bernard Lagat, Moses Kipsiro of Uganda and Qatar's James Kwalia of Qatar. Kwalia was the next to crack followed quickly by Lagat, who could not gain 5000m redemption after bombing out of the semi-finals of the 1500m.

Bekele now consistently running 60-61 seconds was hurting the opposition and on the penultimate lap Kipsiro, the World bronze medallist was the next to drop off the relentless pace at the front.

At the bell Bekele was followed by Kipchoge and Soi but any hope of a Kenyan champion in this event since John Ngugi in Seoul 20 years ago had evaporated 150m into the final lap. Bekele shifted into fifth gear and like a top grade sports car just left the Kenyans for dead.

Soi quickly dropped out of the picture and Bekele had opened up a winning lead on Kipchoge halfway down the back straight.

The rest of the lap was primarily a case of whether Bekele would dip below Said Aouita's 24-year-old Olympic record of 13:05.59. We should never have worried. Bekele produced a 53.8 final lap to stop the clock in 12:57.82.

Kipchoge and Soi took the two minor medals to ensure Kenyan picked up five medals inside the Bird's Nest Stadium tonight - the final day of the track and field programme.

Kipsiro placed fourth in 13:10.56 with Cherkos fifth (13:16.46). Tariku Bekele settled for sixth in 13:19.06 but Lagat's miserable Games was complete as he wound up ninth in 13:26.89.
_________________________ http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=79945 IRIN August 22, 2008 ETHIOPIA: Thousands displaced by flash flood in Gambella

Photo: /IRIN
Thousands of people have been displaced by flash floods after two rivers in the Gambella region burst their banks

ADDIS ABABA, 22 August 2008 (IRIN) - Three rivers in the Gambella region of western Ethiopia have burst their banks following torrential rains that fell in the area for three consecutive days, government officials in the area said.

"We have not yet finalised our assessment, however, an estimated 10,000 to 11,000 people have been displaced," Akway Abala, team leader for the Disaster Prevention and Food Security Department of Gambella region, told IRIN on 22 August.

A flash flood, he added, had occurred in Lare woreda (district) after the heavy downpour that lasted from 16 to 19 August. Villages in another woreda, Itang, which is located 53km west of Gambella town, were also swept away by a flood on 12 August after the Pukong river burst its banks.

"Residents of the villages [have fled] to the highlands," Akway said. "Some of them have sheltered with their relatives and others have made temporary huts. After we finalize our assessment, we will appeal for aid from the federal government or other non-governmental organizations.”

Gambella has been repeatedly affected by flash floods whenever rivers draining down to the region from the western highlands of Ethiopia fill up and burst their banks.

Other regions of Ethiopia have also been affected. In April 2007, several houses were damaged by flood waters in the eastern town of Dire Dawa, 515km from Addis Ababa, after heavy rains pounded the area.

The floods swept over the Addis Ketema and Decahtu suburbs, but there were no reports of casualties. In August 2006, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia's second-largest town with a population of 400,000, was again hit by flash flooding in which at least 250 people died and nearly 10,000 were forced to leave their homes. That flood prompted the town’s administration to build sand banks in the Decahtu, Ashwa, and Hafcat.

The latest reports of a flash flood have come as Ethiopia grapples with a food crisis affecting several million people, as a result of drought, rising global food and fuel prices and poor rains.

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Sustaining Growth: A Way Forward



By Ken Ohashi

World Bank’s Country Director for Ethiopia and Sudan


Setting aside the food crisis for a moment, Ethiopia’s two main economic challenges today are rampant inflation and rising trade deficits. They are interrelated. They reflect an economy that is trying to grow faster than the supply side could keep up.

When domestic demand grows faster than domestic supply, an underlying inflationary tendency is created, and imports rise sharply to alleviate domestic shortages. Of course, the external shocks of high oil and other commodity prices and the failure of Belg rains earlier this year have exacerbated the problem.

Behind all this is the growth strategy of the Government of Ethiopia (GoE). It aims to create quickly a strong infrastructure base and certain key production capacity (e.g., in hydropower, cement, and export industries in general) so that in time, growth of imports will moderate and exports will begin to narrow the trade deficit.

This is a risky approach, for it is an attempt to "over invest" in certain things in anticipation of a strong supply response. But, Ethiopian policymakers argue that a gradualist approach will not do in a country that has been mired in severe poverty for decades.

The current food crisis, which was caused by a failure of rains that generally contribute no more than 10% of the annual food supply, is a stark reminder that Ethiopia needs fast and sustained growth to overcome such vulnerability. Having managed to get the unprecedented growth started—an impressive feat in itself—GoE leaders are keen to sustain this at all cost. Until a tipping point in external imbalance arrives, they hope that more aid and remittances may bridge the financing gap.

Is this a credible scenario? Should the donors step up aid efforts to help fill the temporary financing gap? I believe this strategy has certain coherence. But, the recent experience has also revealed an important weakness.

Private investment, while very strong in select sectors, has not responded to the increasing opportunities on the scale needed to keep the supply side of the economy growing fast enough. Various analyses indicate that investors still find the ‘business climate’ in Ethiopia not good enough for a major investment rush that could have avoided this supply problem. One should also not forget that after a 17-year Derg regime, Ethiopia’s private sector started from a very weak base in the early 1990s.

This does not mean the basic strategy is wrong. I think it can still be viable, and I hope it will prove successful. I believe, however, some mid-course corrections may be necessary. To give a more considered answer, we will have to examine carefully the possible export and import trajectories, underlying investment projections, etc. But, I have some tentative suggestions.

First, I do not think Ethiopia can count on increased aid and remittances alone to offset the rising trade deficits for the next several years. The gap is simply too large.

An important part of the solution is likely to be found in increasing foreign direct investment (FDI), while moderating investment by the public sector. Both types of investments require imports, but FDI brings its own foreign financing.

This switch will allow Ethiopia to maintain high levels of investment without causing foreign exchange problems. Of course, this assumes some public investment projects can be delayed without harming growth, or can even be replaced by private investment.

Ethiopia may find such substitution opportunities in electricity generation, transportation, etc. If state-owned enterprises are involved in conventional manufacturing activities, they would offer obvious opportunities for FDI substitution.

Second, there is still much Ethiopia can do to encourage private sector investment broadly and increase the supply response to the growth in demand. Studies have identified several areas of action, including access to finance, access to land, etc.

Measures that encourage FDI are usually also good for domestic investors (unless they are preferential measures). Since Ethiopia faces a shortage of foreign exchange, focusing on areas that can attract FDI may be timely.

One idea I found interesting is the possibility of opening the domestic civil aviation sector to foreign/domestic joint ventures, and lifting the limit on the size of aircraft private companies can operate.

This can bring not only foreign investment but also increase Ethiopia’s attractiveness to foreign tourists. Furthermore, it would increase the passenger traffic for Ethiopian Airlines from its international routes, a major foreign exchange earner for the country.

Although I do not know all the complexities of this industry, this seems like an attractive proposition. I imagine there are many other such ideas. If foreign investors are required to enter Ethiopia through joint ventures, then it would also help promote domestic businesses.

Third, agricultural productivity remains too low. This is true despite the significant growth in output and some impressive success stories (e.g., roses). I had indicated in part one that an important foundation has been laid to accelerate productivity growth. There is now a need for a comprehensive program to make it happen on a large scale.

Although there is an important role for public investments, e.g., in rural infrastructure and research and development, this needs to be complemented by a policy environment that leads to significantly higher levels of investments by entrepreneurial farmers and the agribusiness sector alike.

One way to achieve this is through active promotion of public-private partnerships. For example, a strong cooperation between public agricultural research on the one side and private seed companies and farmers on the other can facilitate market access and availability of high-yielding varieties to farmers.

Fourth, it is essential to tackle inflation. High inflation tends to stifle savings and investment in productive assets, favoring holding of inflation-resistant assets (such as buildings, undeveloped land, or even teff). This does not help growth. Inflation in Ethiopia already points to some of these problems. East Asian countries that sustained rapid growth for many years all kept inflation in check and encouraged domestic savings and investment. I cannot think of any easy solution for Ethiopia’s inflation, for it seems to be now driven significantly by expectations. GoE has already done much to contain growth of money supply. Whether this, combined with good harvest this fall, will be enough to revere the inflationary expectations is yet to be seen. All I can suggest is GoE needs to remain vigilant and perhaps be prepared to take tougher actions as needed (possibly including further slowing of public investments).

These challenges are daunting. It is important, however, to remember that these policy problems arose from too much growth, not lack thereof. Many governments would gladly exchange their headaches of slow growth for GoE’s headaches.

Although increased donor assistance is unlikely to be big enough to solve the problem of foreign exchange, I do believe that when combined with policy measures to increase supply responsiveness of the economy, additional aid could be very helpful in facilitating a smoother transition to a more sustainable growth path. Without such help, the acute foreign exchange shortage could force Ethiopian economy to slow down abruptly. That would be a huge setback for poverty reduction and a costly way to adjust to macro imbalances.

In part one of this piece, I had indicated that the potential growth rate of Ethiopia may have risen to around 7.5-8% in recent years. Ethiopia should not be satisfied with maintaining that trend line. With strong policy measures to increase supply responsiveness and manage inflation, I believe that rate has the potential to head toward 10%.


Poverty reduction in Ethiopia needs that kind of growth. That would make Ethiopia’s growth strategy truly bold, and well worthy of strong donor support.