Monday, December 8, 2008

Challenges of Demographics and enviornmental stressors in the Horn

www.eastafricaforum.net


http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i-WtiPcdGx83wuVl-kZ8ZT8tQGRg

AFP

December 4, 2008

Ethiopia population soars to near 77 million: census

ADDIS ABABA (AFP) — Ethiopia's population has risen by a staggering 23.4 million people over the past 14 years, to its current 76.9 million, according to a census approved by parliament Thursday.

The census dates from May 2007 and includes a projected annual growth rate of 2.6 million people, after delays in the verification process.

"We carried out a census in May 2007 and it shows that there were 73,918,505 people at that time," Central Statistics Agency chief Samya Zakarya told AFP.

"But based on a projection of an annual growth rate of 2.6 percent, Ethiopia's population up to this month is 76,947,760."

UN estimations of Ethiopia's population are higher, at more than 81 million.

Ethiopia's population stood at 53.4 million when the last census was conducted in 1994.

The new census shows the capital, Addis Ababa, with a population of 2.7 million.

Nearly 62 million people, or 83.8 percent, live in rural areas, with the central Oromiya and Amhara regions growing by 3.2 million and 2.4 million respectively.

Muslims increased by 1.1 percent in the traditionally Christian-dominated nation to number more than 25 million, up from 17.4 million 14 years ago.

The Christian population rose to more than 46 million, or 62 percent of the population, up from 32.7 million in 1994.

The census highlights a decrease in the number of Orthodox Christians, traditionally the dominant church in Ethiopia. They now comprise 43.5 percent of the population, as against just over 50 percent in 1994.

The erosion is mainly due to the rising influence of Pentecostal churches in the country. Membership of Protestant churches as a whole has increased from 5.4 million to 13.7 million.

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http://www.economist.com/world/mideast-africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12725365&fsrc=rss

The Economist, UK

December 4, 2008

A promised withdrawal

Ethiopia says its troops will be out of Somalia soon. Will they? And then?
IT TOOK Ethiopia two weeks in December 2006 and January 2007 to invade Somalia and crush fighters loyal to the Somali Islamic Courts Union.

By contrast, it has taken two years for it to decide to withdraw, leaving the nastiest of the same Islamists in control of much of the country. Officially, Ethiopia is making good on a promise to quit, signed at peace talks in Djibouti last month between Somalia’s impotent transitional government and moderate Islamists.

It has been reducing its presence for some time. Its intelligence network will remain on the ground, though some of its agents may well be killed by the ascendant jihadists. Several thousand of its troops will be stationed on Ethiopia’s side of the border, a day’s drive from Mogadishu, Somalia’s battered capital.

The Djibouti agreement is supposed to swell Somalia’s parliament with moderate Islamists, promising the country the first broadly-based government it has known since the collapse of Siad Barre’s regime in 1991, the last time Somalia had anything approaching a government that controlled the whole country.

In truth, the Ethiopians are leaving because they are fed up—with the vanity of Somalia’s president, Yusuf Abdullahi, and his constant bickering with his prime minister, Nur Hussein; fed up, too, with the listlessness of the African Union (AU) and the UN. Both have failed Somalia almost as entirely as its own leaders.


The AU promised 8,000 troops to control Mogadishu but only 3,000 Ugandan and Burundian peacekeepers pitched up, and then only to protect a few key installations, while other parts of Mogadishu became ever more anarchic.

The capital may now be in its worst shape ever. Several hundred thousand of its hungry people are in dangerous, squalid camps outside the city. The UN has tried to deliver aid, but its budget is far too small and the country is far too dangerous for aid workers, many of whom have been kidnapped and killed.

Among Ethiopian officials and soldiers, a sense of quiet relief prevails; it could have been worse. Perhaps 800 Ethiopian soldiers have been killed. No one knows the cost of the operation or how much of it may have been borne by the United States, which egged on Ethiopia to invade.

But the Ethiopians’ original aims, to shore up Meles Zenawi, their ruthless prime minister, and rout Ethiopia’s ethnic-Somali separatists in the country’s restive Ogaden region in the east, have largely been realised.

Ethiopia, in any case, reckons that the jihadist fighters’ influence in Somalia is weaker than many observers think.

It says the reason young men flock to the Shabab (Youth), the former armed wing of the Islamic Courts, wrap their faces in black scarves and kill in the name of Allah, has less to do with al-Qaeda’s virulent internet rhetoric than with the $100 monthly salary the Shabab pays.

Somalia’s government forces have not been paid for months.

Some Ethiopian officials may hope to be begged to stay on with all their costs paid for, but they know that is as unlikely as the UN sending a robust force of peacekeepers. So far, President-elect Obama’s team of foreign-policy advisers has given no hint that it will drastically change American policy in the Horn of Africa.

Until someone has the courage and the equipment to intervene decisively on a large scale, Somalia will remain the world’s murkiest failed state, with ordinary Somalis trapped in their misery.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/music/2008/dec/03/teddy-afro-convicted-manslaughter

Guardian, UK

December 3, 2008

Ethiopian music legend convicted of manslaughter

Teddy Afro, one of Africa's most popular musicians, has been found guilty of killing a homeless man and faces up to 15 years in jail
Teddy Afro, one of the most popular musicians in Ethiopia, has been convicted of manslaughter and faces up to 15 years in jail.

The singer was found guilty of killing a homeless man in hit-and-run accident involving a BMW in the capital Addis Ababa in 2006. On hearing the judge's verdict Afro is reported to have shouted: "Justice has not been served! I have been deprived of justice! I didn't kill anyone!" He will be sentenced on Friday.

Afro's trial has caused a sensation in Ethiopia. Prosecutors say that even celebrities must face the law if they behave badly. But supporters of Afro, whose real name is Tewodros Kassahun, say he is the victim of a political vendetta because he is perceived to be a symbol of the opposition movement.

Thousands of young men and women protested outside the federal high court when his trial began in April - a rare show of dissent in a tightly controlled state.

Afro first made his name on the Ethiopian music scene in 2001 with his mix of reggae and east African pop. He became renowned for songs paying tribute to the late Emperor Haile Selassie as well as athletics heroes Kenenisa Bekele and Haile Gebrselassie.

His third album, Yasteseryal, was released in 2005, the year of disputed national elections that saw mass anti-government protests quashed violently by the state. One of Afro's songs accused the government of failing to deliver on promises of change, and his music became the unofficial soundtrack of the opposition struggle.

Afro was detained shortly after the hit-and-run incident in 2006, and released on bail.

He was the biggest local star of Ethiopia's millennium celebrations in 2007, before being arrested again and charged in April, leading Ethiopian bloggers to question why it took the authorities 18 months to decide to put him on trial. A least two journalists were arrested for writing articles seen as siding with Afro.

In his defence, Afro claimed he was out of the country on the night the hit-and-run took place.

But judge Leul Gebremariam said: "The court did not find the defendant's counter evidence as substantial enough to drop the charges presented by the prosecutor."

Several people in the court burst into tears as Afro left the court, giving a thumbs up sign to family and friends.

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