Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Challenges of nature and nurture: Global Warming. piracy, draught and Coffee harvest challenges

Dear Patriotic Global Citizens and Friends of Ethiopia/Africa:

Re: Managing Challenges of Nature and Nurture- the experience of the Horn

This is a unique time in the brief history of time where nature and nurture are intimately interacting with disastrous consequences.

Nature is flexing its muscle with a rapidly expanding universe, where dark energy of divergence or expansion is overtaking the dark matter of converging forces. This means we will have a series of vast open spaces between galaxies and some are even considering a series of parallel universes taking shape.

As the macro universe is taking new shape, our micro universe here in the solar system, and specifically the earths orbit and rotational system is facing another challenge that has generated a series of climatic changes referred to as global warming and cooling, which ever part of the globe ones inhabits.

More closely, on planet earth, these divergent and convergent universal forces are impacting the earths's rotational and navigational forces such as climate change in the form of extreme heat at the equator and cold at the poles are becoming more frequent.

The Horn is the oldest human habitation ground and as such tends to be highly vulnerable to natural and human or nurture activities. The recent past 30 years of series of draught has caused a series of challenges in the farming communities where revolutions have been ignited due to the catastrophes that ensued.

Now, it appears another wave of draught is upon us and it is likely that Ethiopia and Somalia will be the most impacted. Already coffee production is expected to slow down. The Somalis have converted themselves into highly effective pirates making $120 Million from some 100 piracy activities.

As their march on Ethiopia was halted effectively by Ethiopian invasion some two years ago, the Somalis are finding sea piracy a much more effective way of raising large sums of money to fund their on land terrorist activities.

Egypt and Eritrea are happy to funnel the Soviet made arms which they cheaply purchase from old Soviet satellite states. Ethiopians want to pull out of Somali terrestrial land mass and African Union forces want to do the same as the United Nations has been incompetent in sending adequate forces.

As Ethiopia pulls out and the maverick Somali President is trying his third Prime Minister and with the Shabab having their own series of Prime Ministers without portfolios, the Pirates have become effective Ministries of Economy and Finance bringing the equation of power and terror into a new level.


So, the United Nations seems to wake up to the challenge and even the Chinese are sending their navies. This is perhaps the busiest sea lane in the Gulf of Aden with European Union, NATO, US, Russian, British and Now Chinese navy is claiming their presence in the most precious Sealane in the universe.

I always wonder, what happened to the Ethiopian Navy, when the Ethiopian Shipping lane is still operational. I still have some friends who refer to themselves as Commodores and Admirals in Washington DC and London and wondered if they will take back their role in the Ethiopian Ocean or the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea.

Will Ethiopian Parliament led by the current parties allow Ethiopia to have her rightful place in this unique time in history? Time will tell. If the Chinese are making it why not Ethiopian Navy?

I some times wonder, what happened to those Great Ethiopian Sea fares and Naval expertise? Did it just disappear or waiting for their time to come?

I just wonder? Here is a fascinating series of stories unfolding and wondered if my people would like to share my concern for our region.

Here is a fascinating true story unfolding for your information.

Dr B


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=aMhkaa9aHvl8&refer=africa

Bloomberg

December 17 2008

Ethiopia’s Coffee Crop May Fall 60% in Two Main Areas

Jason McLure

Coffee output in the two main export-growing areas of Ethiopia, Africa’s largest producer of the beans, may decline 60 percent because of drought, the United Nations said.

The lower harvest may aggravate malnutrition in southern Ethiopia’s Gedeo and Sidamo zones, where hunger is rife as a result of the drought, falling world coffee prices and higher food prices, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said in a report today.

Production in Gedeo may fall 67 percent from a year earlier, while that in Sidamo may decline 53 percent, Tamirat Mulu, the author of the report, said in a phone interview in the capital, Addis Ababa, today.

The report was based on a livelihood assessment carried out by relief agencies between Nov. 17 and Dec. 5. Ethiopia’s main coffee harvest is from October through December.

Ethiopia exported 170,888 metric tons of coffee last year. About 35 percent of that was high-grade washed coffee and 65 percent lower quality dried coffee. Sidama and Gedeo provide about 60 percent of Ethiopia’s washed coffee, Mulu said.

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http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/17/asia/18pirates.php

International Herald Trubune, France

China set to launch naval mission in Gulf of Aden

Mark McDonald

Wednesday, December 17, 2008
HONG KONG: In what would be the first active deployment of its warships beyond the Pacific, China appears set to send naval vessels to help in the fight against hijackers in the pirate-infested Gulf of Aden.

A vice foreign minister and a leading naval strategist were quoted in Chinese state media on Wednesday as saying that Beijing is close to mounting a naval mission in the gulf.

"China is seriously considering sending naval ships to the Gulf of Aden and waters off the Somali coast for escorting operations in the near future," said the Foreign Ministry official, He Yafei, quoted by Xinhua, the official Chinese news agency. His remarks came at a ministerial meeting of the United Nations Security Council.

Li Jie, a military strategist and naval expert, told the state-run China Daily that cooperating with a multinational force operating against East African pirates would be a "very good opportunity" for the Chinese Navy.

"Apart from fighting pirates," he said, "another key goal is to register the presence of the Chinese Navy."

The newspaper earlier this month said Maj. Gen. Jin Yinan, a military planner at the National Defense University, had conceived the Gulf of Aden plan. The paper quoted General Jin as saying that "the Chinese Navy should send naval vessels to the Gulf of Aden to carry out anti-piracy duties." "If one day the Chinese Navy sends ships to deal with pirates," he said, "nobody should be shocked."

Reuters reported Wednesday that pirates had seized a Chinese fishing vessel off the coast of Yemen. The report said the boat was believed to have a crew of about 30. At least two other ships have been hijacked this week: a French tugboat and a Turkish cargo ship.

Traditionally concerned with coastal defense, the People's Liberation Army Navy has been undergoing a wide and rapid modernization program, especially in the bolstering of its submarine fleet. A long-range goal of the Chinese expansion has been the development of a blue-water navy capable of extended tours.

About 60 percent of China's imported oil comes from the Middle East, and the bulk of that passes through the gulf, along with huge shipments of raw materials out of Africa. Last month, two Chinese ships were hijacked there, a fishing trawler and a Hong Kong-flagged cargo ship carrying wheat.

"I would think they would go to protect their own interests -- just for escorting purposes and not for policing," said Jane Chan, an associate research fellow in the Maritime Security Program at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. "I don't think they're talking about going on the offensive right now so far away."

While China has been "quite wary of putting maritime assets in the region and wary of doing anything out in the open," Chinese diplomats have been active in anti-piracy efforts, according to Arthur Bowring, managing director of the Hong Kong Shipowners Association.

"The Chinese have been working diplomatically with the Yemeni government and coast guard, and their ambassador in Nairobi is very heavily involved," Mr. Bowring said. "They may not seem out in front, but they work extremely hard in the back seat."

To help combat the dramatic rise of increasingly brazen hijackings in the gulf, the European Union deployed its first-ever naval mission this month, a six-ship flotilla. The E.U. operation, code-named Atalanta, joined other navies already patrolling there, including the United States, Russia and India.

"China is usually quite conservative about playing with the big guys or saying they're going to match up with them," said Ms. Chan.

Also this month, the Security Council passed a resolution allowing navies to breach Somalia's 12-mile territorial limit while pursuing suspected pirates. And on Tuesday, the council voted unanimously to permit attacks on pirate bases on the ground as well.

Although pirates use oceangoing "mother ships" to attack merchant vessels deep in international waters, they are resupplied and find safe haven in towns along the lawless coast of Somalia. Many anti-piracy experts have pressed for international strikes against the pirate bases on land.

"Piracy is a symptom of the state of anarchy which has persisted in that country for over 17 years," said the U.N. secretary general, Ban Ki-moon. "This lawlessness constitutes a serious threat to regional stability and to international peace and security."

The U.S. secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, helped push through the U.N. resolution, which allows "all necessary measures." "I would not be here seeking authorization to go ashore if the United States government, perhaps most importantly, the president of the United States, were not behind this resolution," she said.

More than 100 vessels have been attacked by pirates in the gulf this year, and 42 have been hijacked. Sixteen are currently being held for ransom, including a fully loaded Saudi supertanker, the Sirius Star, and a Ukrainian ship, the Faina, carrying a load of 32 battle tanks and other heavy weapons. About 250 crew members also are being held on the various hijacked ships.

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http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnN16287080.html
UN council allows Somali anti-piracy fight on land
Tue 16 Dec 2008
Patrick Worsnip

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - The U.N. Security Council on Tuesday authorized countries fighting piracy off the Somali coast to take action also on Somalia's territory and in its airspace, subject to consent by the country's government.

The United States said for the first time that the United Nations should deploy a peacekeeping force to war-torn Somalia and that Washington would push for a Security Council resolution by the end of the year to authorize one.

A surge in piracy in one of the world's busiest shipping lanes has pushed up insurance costs, brought pirates in the Horn of Africa country tens of millions of dollars in ransom and prompted foreign navies to rush to the area to protect merchant shipping.

But analysts say the international action has done little to deter the pirates, partly because the forces chasing them have not had the authority to take the battle onto land, where the pirates are based.

Tuesday's U.S.-drafted resolution, passed unanimously by the 15-nation council, extends that authority to countries that Somalia's interim government has told U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon are cooperating with it to combat piracy.

States "may undertake all necessary measures in Somalia, including in its airspace, for the purpose of interdicting those who are using Somali territory to plan, facilitate or undertake acts of piracy and armed robbery at sea," it says.

The Security Council session was attended by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, who were at the world body for talks on a range of world issues.

Although the role of the Somali government was repeatedly stressed in the resolution, that government is weak and divided. The country has been in virtual anarchy since the collapse of a dictatorship 17 years ago. Islamists control most of the south and feuding clan militias hold sway elsewhere.

It was also not clear what kind of forces would engage in land or air operations against the pirates or whether the U.S. military would participate.

CONTACT GROUP

The resolution called on states to "take part actively" in the fight against piracy off Somalia.

It urged them to make agreements with countries willing to take custody of captured pirates to take law enforcement officials from those countries onboard their naval vessels to aid the investigation and prosecution of those detained.

On the day the resolution was passed, pirates hijacked an Indonesian tugboat used by French oil company Total off Yemen and a Turkish cargo ship was also reported captured. Around a dozen ships and nearly 300 hostages are being held in Somalia.

Rice told the council Washington would set up a contact group to promote anti-piracy efforts, including through sharing intelligence.

But, like other speakers, she said the piracy crisis was inseparable from the turmoil in Somalia. The United States "does believe that the time has come for the United Nations to consider and authorize a peacekeeping operation," she said.

"We believe that by the end of the year we should try and have such a Security Council resolution," Rice told reporters later. African countries favor such a force and South African envoy Dumisani Kumalo said, "It's what we've always wanted."

But U.N. officials fear a blue-helmet force would fail unless the situation in Somalia calms down.

Ban has proposed a multinational force with a wide mandate to pacify Somalia ahead of a U.N. peacekeeping force, but acknowledged that of 50 countries and three international organizations he had approached none had offered to lead one.

He told the council on Tuesday plans announced by Ethiopia to withdraw by the year's end its forces supporting the Somali government "could easily lead to chaos."

He suggested bolstering a so-far ineffectual African Union force in Somalia, helping the Somalis themselves to restore security and looking at setting up an international maritime task force to launch operations into Somalia.

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