Revolutionary Democrats: The Bumpy Road Ahead
It is not only in the United States where major political parties conduct their conventions; here too, the parties under the ruling party’s embrace began their respective congressional meetings last week. These would pave the way for a convention by the EPRDF, in Awassa, scheduled for the second week of September, 2008.
Admittedly, what will and, perhaps, will not happen during this convention could be considered as one of the two major political developments to watch out for in Ethiopia in the next two years. It would be an occasion for the Revolutionary Democrats to position themselves for the national elections come 2010. Not surprisingly, there is an overwhelming anticipation of change, although hardly anyone seems to quantify what sort of change is needed, or expected.
But the feeling for some kind of change is up in the air. How prepared and willing EPRDF leaders are to respond to this desire - observed within and outside - is anyone’s guess. Nonetheless, the decision they are bound to make will undoubtedly have a major impact within and outside their sphere of influence.
In many ways - and only seen free from partisan emotions - the Revolutionary Democrats are more than a political grouping. They are a force of transformation in politics as they are in society, whether or not one likes their philosophies. For one, they have transformed the Ethiopian political landscape over the past 17 years, bringing it to a point of no return today.
It might have taken over a century for Ethiopia’s political gravity to anchor on unionist agenda, from Emperor Tewodros, whose ambition was to recreate a powerful central government, to Col. Mengistu Hailemariam, whose reign took Emperor Hailesellasie’s centralist bureaucracy to its extreme form. The Revolutionary Democrats have redrawn the country’s map on a federal arrangement, with regional states created along the lines of linguistic based cultural identities.
Subsequently, they have managed to engineer a startling devolution of, firstly, political power and in recent years, budgetary allocations.
What was once unthinkable in seemingly mainstream Ethiopian politics - what is often described as “ethnic politics” - is an issue no longer in the periphery. Even their political foes - such as in the unionist camp that appear to have finally crystallised as Unity for Democracy and Justice (UDJ), only to mention one - have come to concede that Ethiopia has indeed had a troubling past when it comes to relationships between various groups, now known as “nations and nationalities.”
Revolutionary Democrats have a history of being bold and courageous, just as they have been seen as stubborn and patronizing. They have proven to be politically daring in raising extremely unpopular issues in the eyes of the larger public, but have sold them, effectively, to their rank and file. For instance, they have gotten away with allowing Eritrea to break away, together with its ports, leaving the country landlocked. This is not only an issue that caused them to be at loggerheads with the political elite at the beginning of their assuming power, but also a decision deeply regretted by people who once were in their midst.
They have architected a constitution, which incorporates an article - Article 39 - that is deeply resented by many outside of their world. At the same time, they have so far fended off strong demands from political interests, such as the OLF and the ONLF, which would like to see this part of the constitution apply to regions they have claims for.
Through all this, and in their long journey from the remote fields of Ethiopia to the Menelik Palace in Addis, the Revolutionary Democrats have shown their ability to change, adapt to new realities, and “renew” when they find themselves at their darkest and lowest; on a number of occasions they have remarkably resurged whenever their adversaries underestimate them.
And history and the Ethiopian people have always been generous to them. They might have squandered several opportunities in the past, as was the case during the first decade of their rule, when they seemed to have problems of clarity of direction. It appears that they were always given another chance, and lease of political life. The kind of public dissatisfaction that had been gathering momentum had faded away when the nation rallied behind them against Eritrea’s aggression.
An internal crisis and squabbling might have given them little time, and perhaps energy, to focus on the nation’s business outside of their circle. They seemed to be oblivious to the emergence of a population that grew restless, for a lack of a sense of justice and equity, real or otherwise. They believed they were right in their policies, and tried to shove them down the nation’s throat, as they admitted later on. They indulged in sweet talk, and listened to their own tune. Their over-confidence and complacence cost them a lot, when they were up for what was the most contested national elections in the country’s history.
They were lucky; the public has given them yet another chance, it seems. Three years down the line, they can hardly find a political climate more conducive for their rule.
If there is any formidable opposition out there today, it is deeply divided, largely due to its own making; and severely weakened, if one is wise enough to take notice of EUDP-Medhin’s candid recent admission.
Members of the public are as much frustrated with the oppositions’ rhetoric, if not unprecedented fragmentation, as they are with the Revolutionary Democrats’ much feared authoritarianism posed in the form of a developmental state. Despite an outcry from opposition leaders and personalities that the political space is increasingly shrinking, it would not be an undemanding task either to galvanize the public to their causes, for they are now paying for their mistakes made in the past. The perception that the opposition camp would deliver this country from the grips of the Revolutionary Democrats is far from as irresistible as appeared the case a few years ago.
Again, the Revolutionary Democrats find themselves at the threshold of another chance, after surviving the results of the painful national elections of 2005, which was more of a referendum on their rule than a popular mandate granted to their political rivals, as it might have looked like.
By the same token, though admittedly disputable, the turnout during the latest local elections in April 2008 could be taken as a protest vote on the oppositions’ failure to demonstrate coherence and some degree of unity, more than it might have given the appearance that the public is very happy with all that is the EPRDF.
Nevertheless, there is an interesting development in the making; while the opposition camp strives to overcome damaging disintegration, the Revolutionary Democrats are stretching their tentacles. There is perhaps no better indication than the enlargement of their membership base across the nation; the EPRDF claims to have 4.5 million members on its list.
There are now 700,000 card-carrying members of the ruling party in Addis Abeba alone; a number that has not only swelled by 100,000 from the total membership it had all over the country prior to 2005, but that also represents three quarters of the eligible voters registered in the capital during the last national elections. In the absence of reports of coercion and forced recruitment, these numbers should reveal something more than the oppositions’ rhetoric that the Revolutionary Democrats are unpopular beyond redemption and their days in power are justly numbered.
The Revolutionary Democrats, on the other hand, appear to have not much aspiration to increase their membership base; they are, however, determined to devote their energy towards consolidating and enhancing the quality of these members in a bid to face the bumpy road ahead. Their upcoming convention will have to result in an overwhelming consensus of what their rank and file want to see.
Those who are advocating and expecting change in terms of policies, or a symbolic gesture in reshuffling personalities at the leadership level, may be in for disappointment. There is little indication of anything of that sort happening.
The Awassa Convention is expected to evaluate the party’s performance over the past two years - particularly on issues of development and governance. The Revolutionary Democrats believe that they have done considerably well in promoting “democratic and development reforms” in Ethiopia, but more impressively in rural areas where they claim they have dealt “rent seeking” a decisive blow. They attribute their victory to the policy of the state’s hold on land, and provisions of micro financing to the rural community.
They seem to be convinced that they have performed remarkably well in terms of growth in agricultural productivity; expansion of urban and rural infrastructure in areas of roads, dams, electricity, and telecom; enhanced provision of social services in health and education; as well as housing development in urban Ethiopia that has created hundreds of thousands of jobs and generated business for small companies. The theme of their convention is thus centred on “scaling up” these achievements on the economic front and emulating best practices in the governance area.
But they also admit having shortcomings.
They believe they have brought five per cent of the rural population under their wing, leaving 95pc outside of their sphere of influence, as they might accept that they have yet to gain a sufficient hold in urban Ethiopia. They may probably address the issue of communication breakdown in channelling policies the party draws from the leadership to and through the rank and file, as they will probably talk about the need to strike a balance between implementing the reform agenda and ensuring good governance.
For voices that have begun to be heard within and outside the party, these are issues too insular and not strong enough to take the party forward. For those who want to see the ruling party change, these are only issues that represent inertia, and perhaps complacence. They would rather see the kind of change where the EPRDF re-brands this time around, transforming itself into a unified national party.
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